The Quality Start

One of the many things that sets WFAN's Mike Francesa off is the concept of a "Quality Start". Consulting Wikipedia, we find out that a Quality Start is: "awarded to a starting pitcher who completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs." The article then goes on to bitch-slap Francesa upside the head by saying:

"An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91"

Now, discounting statistics (as Francesa doesn't seem to understand anything more complicated than RBIs, BA and W/L record), let's look at the definition of a Quality Start, and why it is a good indicator of a pitcher's performance in the most important area of the game, giving his team a chance to win (since he himself has no control over wins and losses).

Now, we've established that a Quality Start results in the opposing team scoring 4.5 runs per game. The MLB average ERA this year is 4.33, and the average MLB team scores 4.6 runs per game. So, a Quality Start results in a more or less league average performance. So why is a league average performance deemed "quality"?

Well, once again, ignoring the exhaustive research performed by Bill James which proves this point, there is a more elemental point to be made. If Pitcher A goes 6 innings one start and gives up 6 runs, and then goes 6 innings the next start and gives up 0 runs in his next start, his ERA is an average 4.5. BUT, if Pitcher B goes 6 innings one start and gives up 3 runs, and then goes 6 innings the next start and gives up 3 runs in his next start, his ERA is an average 4.5.

The question then is: Which pitcher gave his team the best chance to win both games? Obviously, the answer is Pitcher B, as even a league average offensive performance would have resulted in two (bullpen neutral) wins.

This, as always, is another reason that Mike Francesa is a douchebag.

*Pitcher B is Greg Maddux, 1997, and Pitcher A is Oliver Perez, 2009.
** Not really.