Let us assume that in addition to the starting 8 position players, we want a backup C, MI, CI and 2 backup OFs. Let's assume that carrying three catchers is NOT going to happen next year, at least on opening day. The pitching staff should ideally consist of 5 SPs, a swingman, a closer, two lefties (one being a LOOGY) and three righties, one who can ideally get us some ground ball outs.In addition, we must be VERY cost conscious in creating this roster, because as anyone who has attended a game at CitiField (or not) can tell you, the Wilpons will be very cost conscious this off-season. A general goal should also be to have a deeper, more flexible bench, get younger and more athletic, and get some pitchers who don't walk the world.
No doubt about it, jobs are safe:
David Wright (3B)
Jose Reyes (SS)
Ruben Tejada (2B/SS)
Ike Davis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
Angel Pagan (CF)
Josh Thole (C)
Johan Santana (SP)
Mike Pelfrey (SP)
RA Dickey (SP)
Jon Neise (SP)
Bobby Parnell (RP)
12 of the 25 Spots filled.
Borderline (Should be on the team)
Carlos Beltran (CF) - Only included in this section because of recent chatter of the Mets attempting to trade him. I believe that would be a giant mistake at this point. When healthy and motivated, he is one of the best players in baseball. A full year removed from mysterious knee surgery, brace free, and in a Scott Boras contract drive, he should have a monster year a la his last year in Kansas City/Houston. A move to right field is in order, but we'll worry about that later.
Chris Carter (1B/LF/RF) - Looking up and down the offense of this team, there is a serious lack of left-handed power aside from Davis and possibly Beltran. Throw in the fact that he can actually take a walk and he is sorely needed on this team. I realize the Mets have reservations about his defense, but they lived with Luis Castillo for the better part of three year and Daniel Murphy for one in LF. He should be on this team, as part of a platoon in the OF or a corner OF sub or pinch-hitter extraordinaire.
Daniel Murphy (3B/2B/1B/LF) - So he's not going to hit over .300 and be our left fielder of the future. I can live with that. What he can be is a left-handed Mark DeRosa, or, to use an example closer to home, a left-handed Joe McEwing (non-SS version). He is working out at 2B, the position the Mets should have used him in, and he can platoon with, or backup Ruben Tejada, in an offense/defense, left/right platoon at 2B.
Ryota Igarashi (RP) - Ehh. He's under contract, and can probably be mildly more effective than he has been lately; his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA.
Sean Green (RP) - Ground ball machine (Career: 62% GB%!!!) who is working is way back. Pretty much all that is left from the disastrous Putz/Chavez deal. These last few weeks will go a long way towards determining his role on the 2011 Mets, if any, but he deserves a chance.
Manny Acosta (RP) - Like many Met pitchers, he needs to stop walking the world (career minor league walks per 9 innings pitched: Over FIVE), but this season he has performed reasonably well, is cheap, and seems to have a little fight in him
Nick Evans (LF/RF/1B) - He's slugged over .450 in each of his last two minor league seasons and is young and cheap (see a pattern here?). More importantly, we need to see what he can do to understand if he is going to be a part of the next generation of Mets winners.
Francisco Rodriguez (RP) - I think the $11 million+ that K-Rod is due next year could be put to MUCH better use, but I doubt that the team will be able to void his contract. At least this latest dust up means that he will not be able to easily achieve is disgusting $17.5 million option for 2012.
Joaquin Arias (SS/2B/1B/3B) - Basically, a faster, younger, cheaper version of Alex Cora, but one who actually has some room to improve, rather than only possibly going down in performance. Also, can play a decent SS. Traded for A-Rod.
21 of 25 Spots filled.
Borderline (Should NOT be on the team)
Jenrry Mejia (SP) - Not that we don't all love the kid, but look at what Tampa Bay has done with their young pitchers. They are trained in the minors, stretched out until they are ready to come up and dominate. If he is going to be on the team next year, it should be as a call-up, a #7 SP, once he has proven himself in the minors.
Jeff Francouer (RF) - Ha. Thank you Omar.
Fernando Martinez (RF/CF/LF) - He has not shown us enough while up here to warrant a spot, and he has not shown an ability to stay healthy in the minor leagues. A la Mejia, keep him in AA or AAA and let him rake before we call him up and unleash him on the unsuspecting NL East.
Fernando Tatis (3B/1B/2B/SS/RF/LF) - Ha ha.
Spots left to fill
Backup C, 2 LHP RP, 1 (good) SP
As Thole is young and you can never have too many backup catchers seems to be Omar's motto,
the Backup C should hit from the right side of the plate, and probably be capable of giving Davis a day off here or there against a tough lefty (although his splits aren't bad at all). The SP should be someone who strikes people out, something the Mets have been missing for far too long (Al Leiter? Mike Hampton? Doc Gooden?).
Targets in Trades
Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden (Cs - Texas) - Both are slugging right handed catchers in the Texas Rangers system. Teagarden has been playing more than Ramirez lately, backing up Bengie Molina (hey, Mets fans, glad we didn't sign him?) and slugging over .400. Ramirez is known to be a little defensively challenged, which is probably why the contending Rangers have gone with Teagarden as their primary backup. Either would make a fine platoon partner with Thole, with 5 or 10 starts at first thrown in there. The main obstacle to acquiring either of these guys is not that they are both young, inexpensive and under team control next year, but that the Rangers are not a silly organization, like the Reds, Cubs, Royals or Mets, willing to give away younger talent for nothing. Acquiring one of them will take a Familia or a Martinez, and it might be time for the Mets to sell high on one of them. Teagarden is a LITTLE closer to free agency, so the Rangers might be a little more willing to deal him.
Mike Napoli (C - Los Angeles (AL)) -A long shot, perhaps, but remember that earlier in the year Napoli sat over half the time in favor of Jeff Mathis. Let me repeat that. Jeff Mathis. This, with a manager who used to be a catcher? It is obvious that Anaheim undervalues Napoli a bit, and he has even played some 1B this year with Kendry Morales' ankle injury. With Morales coming back next year, Mathis healed, a young catcher coming up and the DH spot possibly being filled with Bobby Abreu, Napoli could once again be relegated to backup duty or long stretches on the bench, despite seeing another season of over 20 HRs in limited duty.
Ryan Doumit (C/RF/1B - Pittsburgh) - A switch-hitting catcher whose slugging % has never been below .400, and has topped .500 as recently as two years ago. Not an ideal solution, but is flexible enough to fidn some at-bats elsewhere in the lineup. Let's not forget that they just traded for Chris Snyder, who makes more money than Doumit, and have Tony (Dirty) Sanchez, a recent first round pick whose main attribute was being close to major-league ready.Carlos Zambrano (SP - Chicago (NL)) - The main problem with Zambrano (aside from being, well, crazy and owning a declining strikeout rate) is his contract. He makes $18 million next year and in 2012 (his vesting player option is based on finishing in the top 4 of Cy Young voting....making it not likely to take effect). Coincidentally, the Mets have two pariahs of their own, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, who combine to make $18 million next year and who should not be a part of the team. Zambrano has given no indication that he will accept a trade, but then again, he has said some crazy stuff in the past. For someone with Zambrano's ability to strike people out and the low mileage on his arm these past two years, he is well worth the gamble. Get him on Slim-Fast and he might bring something to the table aside from his gut. As for the Cubs, they will be saying goodbye to Sweet Lou this off-season, they could use a 2B (having traded away Derek Lee and thinking about switching Aramis Ramirez to 1B, they could make Blake DeWitt back into a 3B), especially one who hits from the left side. As for Perez, well, lets hope that they're crazy? Maybe some money gets thrown in to compensate for the fact that Perez is maybe the worst player in baseball, but there is something there.
James Shields (SP - Tampa Bay) - Everyone knows that the Rays will be going through a transition next year, with their owner announcing a major slash to their already minor payroll. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are as good as gone, but the Rays have major-league ready replacements in Desmond Jennings and possible Matt Joyce and Willy Aybar at 1B. What they also have is a kid by the name of Jeremy Hellickson, who is knocking on the door and will break through this off-season, as he is currently on the David Price postseason reliever program. He makes $4.25 million next year, which would make him the highest paid Ray, depending on what they did in arbitration with Jason Bartlett and BJ Upton and what they do with Dan Wheeler's option. Matt Garza could also get more through arbitration. If the Rays are looking to slash payroll even more, they could look to trade Shields, who is no better than their #3 starter. Imagine him if he wasn't facing the Yankees and Red Sox?
Targets in Free Agency
Let's just get rid of great names like Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee right now. Not only are they too rich for the Wilpon's blood, but they are not native Spanish speakers, so Omar can't do his thing that offended Carlos Delgado so much. Victor Martinez will get too much money from the Red Sox to stay, or from the Angels to replace Napoli or from the Mariners to replace whatever cadaver they currently have playing C. Some realistic targets might include:
Jeremy Bonderman (SP) -Sadly, probably still too rich for the Wilpon's blood, and has been making noise about retiring if he doesn't go back to Detroit.
Brandon Webb (SP) - His option is too rich for rebuilding Arizona's blood. Maybe on an incentive-laden deal he make sense?
Dennys Reyes (RP) - Reliable National league reliever, who might fly under the radar.
Joe Beimel (RP) - Mets should have signed him this offseason. Now they get a second bite at the (home run) apple.
Hisanoria Takashi (RP/SP) - Would fill the role of swingman well. I am concerned that his delivery will be figured out and that he will not be as effective his second year in the majors, but he does strike people out and has performed well.
Conclusion
Without too much trouble, and very little extra money spent by Omar this winter, the 2011 Mets roster could easily look like this:
C - Thole/Ramirez
1B - Davis/Ramirez/Evans
2B - Tejada/Murphy/Arias
SS - Reyes/Arias
3B - Wright/Murphy/Arias
LF - Bay/Carter/Evans
CF - Pagan/Beltran
RF - Beltran/Carter/Evans
SP - Santana
SP - Zambrano
SP - Niese
SP - Pelfrey
SP - Dickey
CL - Rodriguez
RP - Parnell
RP - Beimel
RP - Green
RP - Acosta
RP - Takahashi
RP - Igarashi
Is that team winning the NL East next year? Absolutely not. But there are some young players with upside, the bench has depth, versatility and power, along with a long-missing defensive prowess. The starting staff leaves a lot to be desired, and the only real hopes for 2012 in the bullpen are Parnell and Green. I would love to come up with a way for the Mets to trade for James Shields, or sign Bonderman outright, but sadly, Shields probably makes too much money for the Mets and Zambrano's salary slot is just replacing dead weight.
Perhaps more importantly, as a Mets fan, this team is younger, crazier and has some hope for the future. It sets the stage for 2012 when huge money from Beltran, K-Rod and (currently) Perez and Castillo come off the books and hopefully the next wave of minor league talent is ready.
