Looking Back at the 2011 Mets Roster Construction

In September, 2010, I theorized as to what a (sort of) contending New York Mets roster might look like. A lot has happened since then. Johan's recovery from surgery has taken a LONG time. Omar was (sort of) let go. Sandy came on, as did an army of front office executives (an under appreciated Mets weakness these past few years). From day one, Sandy basically admitted that 2011 would NOT be a contending Mets team, and the start to their season would do nothing to make us think anything different.

My theoretical roster, from September:

"C - Thole/Ramirez
1B - Davis/Ramirez/Evans
2B - Tejada/Murphy/Arias
SS - Reyes/Arias
3B - Wright/Murphy/Arias
LF - Bay/Carter/Evans
CF - Pagan/Beltran
RF - Beltran/Carter/Evans

SP - Santana
SP - Zambrano
SP - Niese
SP - Pelfrey
SP - Dickey

CL - Rodriguez
RP - Parnell
RP - Beimel
RP - Green
RP - Acosta
RP - Takahashi
RP - Igarashi"

Some hits, some misses. Obviously Santana is hurt and without contending, there was no point in trading for Carlos Zambrano (although his start so far is encouraging). Niese, Pelfrey and Dickey are the top three Mets starters, unfortunately. Chris Young could be trade bait if he stays healthy and should be gone about the same time Santana is due to come back. Capuano is much the same, and will probably be replaced with Gee when he is ready/when Capuano is traded. Lets call that 4/5ths of the starting rotation.

The bullpen, as with all bullpens was hard to call. Who saw Jason Isringhausen coming out of retirement and the Mets selecting Pedro Beato in the Rule 5 draft and him being lights out? Byrdak is the situational lefty that Biemel could have been. 4/7 in the pen.

Thole is the starting catcher, and is looking pretty good. Davis is entrenched at 1st. Murphy is in a platoon with someone (currently Justin Turner, but, come on) at 2nd. Reyes and Wright hold down the left side. The backup infielder is Hu, not Arias, but same difference. My big whiff was in the backup outfield, where I wanted the Mets to give power and patience some run (and it's odd, cause it would go along with Sandy's philosophy, but oh well) with Carter and Evans, but instead the Mets have gone with defense and scrappiness with Hairston and Harris. So, let's say 9/13.

Thats a total of 17/25. Not bad.

The New York Mets 2011 Roster

Since the trading deadline is effectively over, let's take a look at our current roster, along with who will be back next year, and then see what holes there might be to fill.

Let us assume that in addition to the starting 8 position players, we want a backup C, MI, CI and 2 backup OFs. Let's assume that carrying three catchers is NOT going to happen next year, at least on opening day. The pitching staff should ideally consist of 5 SPs, a swingman, a closer, two lefties (one being a LOOGY) and three righties, one who can ideally get us some ground ball outs.

In addition, we must be VERY cost conscious in creating this roster, because as anyone who has attended a game at CitiField (or not) can tell you, the Wilpons will be very cost conscious this off-season. A general goal should also be to have a deeper, more flexible bench, get younger and more athletic, and get some pitchers who don't walk the world.

No doubt about it, jobs are safe:

David Wright (3B)
Jose Reyes (SS)
Ruben Tejada (2B/SS)
Ike Davis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
Angel Pagan (CF)
Josh Thole (C)
Johan Santana (SP)
Mike Pelfrey (SP)
RA Dickey (SP)
Jon Neise (SP)
Bobby Parnell (RP)

12 of the 25 Spots filled.

Borderline (Should be on the team)

Carlos Beltran (CF) - Only included in this section because of recent chatter of the Mets attempting to trade him. I believe that would be a giant mistake at this point. When healthy and motivated, he is one of the best players in baseball. A full year removed from mysterious knee surgery, brace free, and in a Scott Boras contract drive, he should have a monster year a la his last year in Kansas City/Houston. A move to right field is in order, but we'll worry about that later.

Chris Carter (1B/LF/RF) - Looking up and down the offense of this team, there is a serious lack of left-handed power aside from Davis and possibly Beltran. Throw in the fact that he can actually take a walk and he is sorely needed on this team. I realize the Mets have reservations about his defense, but they lived with Luis Castillo for the better part of three year and Daniel Murphy for one in LF. He should be on this team, as part of a platoon in the OF or a corner OF sub or pinch-hitter extraordinaire.

Daniel Murphy (3B/2B/1B/LF) - So he's not going to hit over .300 and be our left fielder of the future. I can live with that. What he can be is a left-handed Mark DeRosa, or, to use an example closer to home, a left-handed Joe McEwing (non-SS version). He is working out at 2B, the position the Mets should have used him in, and he can platoon with, or backup Ruben Tejada, in an offense/defense, left/right platoon at 2B.

Ryota Igarashi (RP) - Ehh. He's under contract, and can probably be mildly more effective than he has been lately; his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA.

Sean Green (RP) - Ground ball machine (Career: 62% GB%!!!) who is working is way back. Pretty much all that is left from the disastrous Putz/Chavez deal. These last few weeks will go a long way towards determining his role on the 2011 Mets, if any, but he deserves a chance.

Manny Acosta (RP) - Like many Met pitchers, he needs to stop walking the world (career minor league walks per 9 innings pitched: Over FIVE), but this season he has performed reasonably well, is cheap, and seems to have a little fight in him

Nick Evans (LF/RF/1B) - He's slugged over .450 in each of his last two minor league seasons and is young and cheap (see a pattern here?). More importantly, we need to see what he can do to understand if he is going to be a part of the next generation of Mets winners.

Francisco Rodriguez (RP) - I think the $11 million+ that K-Rod is due next year could be put to MUCH better use, but I doubt that the team will be able to void his contract. At least this latest dust up means that he will not be able to easily achieve is disgusting $17.5 million option for 2012.

Joaquin Arias (SS/2B/1B/3B) - Basically, a faster, younger, cheaper version of Alex Cora, but one who actually has some room to improve, rather than only possibly going down in performance. Also, can play a decent SS. Traded for A-Rod.

21 of 25 Spots filled.

Borderline (Should NOT be on the team)

Jenrry Mejia (SP) - Not that we don't all love the kid, but look at what Tampa Bay has done with their young pitchers. They are trained in the minors, stretched out until they are ready to come up and dominate. If he is going to be on the team next year, it should be as a call-up, a #7 SP, once he has proven himself in the minors.

Jeff Francouer (RF) - Ha. Thank you Omar.

Fernando Martinez (RF/CF/LF) - He has not shown us enough while up here to warrant a spot, and he has not shown an ability to stay healthy in the minor leagues. A la Mejia, keep him in AA or AAA and let him rake before we call him up and unleash him on the unsuspecting NL East.

Fernando Tatis (3B/1B/2B/SS/RF/LF) - Ha ha.

Spots left to fill

Backup C, 2 LHP RP, 1 (good) SP

As Thole is young and you can never have too many backup catchers seems to be Omar's motto,
the Backup C should hit from the right side of the plate, and probably be capable of giving Davis a day off here or there against a tough lefty (although his splits aren't bad at all). The SP should be someone who strikes people out, something the Mets have been missing for far too long (Al Leiter? Mike Hampton? Doc Gooden?).

Targets in Trades

Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden (Cs - Texas) - Both are slugging right handed catchers in the Texas Rangers system. Teagarden has been playing more than Ramirez lately, backing up Bengie Molina (hey, Mets fans, glad we didn't sign him?) and slugging over .400. Ramirez is known to be a little defensively challenged, which is probably why the contending Rangers have gone with Teagarden as their primary backup. Either would make a fine platoon partner with Thole, with 5 or 10 starts at first thrown in there. The main obstacle to acquiring either of these guys is not that they are both young, inexpensive and under team control next year, but that the Rangers are not a silly organization, like the Reds, Cubs, Royals or Mets, willing to give away younger talent for nothing. Acquiring one of them will take a Familia or a Martinez, and it might be time for the Mets to sell high on one of them. Teagarden is a LITTLE closer to free agency, so the Rangers might be a little more willing to deal him.

Mike Napoli (C - Los Angeles (AL)) -A long shot, perhaps, but remember that earlier in the year Napoli sat over half the time in favor of Jeff Mathis. Let me repeat that. Jeff Mathis. This, with a manager who used to be a catcher? It is obvious that Anaheim undervalues Napoli a bit, and he has even played some 1B this year with Kendry Morales' ankle injury. With Morales coming back next year, Mathis healed, a young catcher coming up and the DH spot possibly being filled with Bobby Abreu, Napoli could once again be relegated to backup duty or long stretches on the bench, despite seeing another season of over 20 HRs in limited duty.

Ryan Doumit (C/RF/1B - Pittsburgh) - A switch-hitting catcher whose slugging % has never been below .400, and has topped .500 as recently as two years ago. Not an ideal solution, but is flexible enough to fidn some at-bats elsewhere in the lineup. Let's not forget that they just traded for Chris Snyder, who makes more money than Doumit, and have Tony (Dirty) Sanchez, a recent first round pick whose main attribute was being close to major-league ready.

Carlos Zambrano (SP - Chicago (NL)) - The main problem with Zambrano (aside from being, well, crazy and owning a declining strikeout rate) is his contract. He makes $18 million next year and in 2012 (his vesting player option is based on finishing in the top 4 of Cy Young voting....making it not likely to take effect). Coincidentally, the Mets have two pariahs of their own, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, who combine to make $18 million next year and who should not be a part of the team. Zambrano has given no indication that he will accept a trade, but then again, he has said some crazy stuff in the past. For someone with Zambrano's ability to strike people out and the low mileage on his arm these past two years, he is well worth the gamble. Get him on Slim-Fast and he might bring something to the table aside from his gut. As for the Cubs, they will be saying goodbye to Sweet Lou this off-season, they could use a 2B (having traded away Derek Lee and thinking about switching Aramis Ramirez to 1B, they could make Blake DeWitt back into a 3B), especially one who hits from the left side. As for Perez, well, lets hope that they're crazy? Maybe some money gets thrown in to compensate for the fact that Perez is maybe the worst player in baseball, but there is something there.

James Shields (SP - Tampa Bay) - Everyone knows that the Rays will be going through a transition next year, with their owner announcing a major slash to their already minor payroll. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are as good as gone, but the Rays have major-league ready replacements in Desmond Jennings and possible Matt Joyce and Willy Aybar at 1B. What they also have is a kid by the name of Jeremy Hellickson, who is knocking on the door and will break through this off-season, as he is currently on the David Price postseason reliever program. He makes $4.25 million next year, which would make him the highest paid Ray, depending on what they did in arbitration with Jason Bartlett and BJ Upton and what they do with Dan Wheeler's option. Matt Garza could also get more through arbitration. If the Rays are looking to slash payroll even more, they could look to trade Shields, who is no better than their #3 starter. Imagine him if he wasn't facing the Yankees and Red Sox?

Targets in Free Agency

Let's just get rid of great names like Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee right now. Not only are they too rich for the Wilpon's blood, but they are not native Spanish speakers, so Omar can't do his thing that offended Carlos Delgado so much. Victor Martinez will get too much money from the Red Sox to stay, or from the Angels to replace Napoli or from the Mariners to replace whatever cadaver they currently have playing C. Some realistic targets might include:

Jeremy Bonderman (SP) -Sadly, probably still too rich for the Wilpon's blood, and has been making noise about retiring if he doesn't go back to Detroit.

Brandon Webb (SP) - His option is too rich for rebuilding Arizona's blood. Maybe on an incentive-laden deal he make sense?

Dennys Reyes (RP) - Reliable National league reliever, who might fly under the radar.

Joe Beimel (RP) - Mets should have signed him this offseason. Now they get a second bite at the (home run) apple.

Hisanoria Takashi (RP/SP) - Would fill the role of swingman well. I am concerned that his delivery will be figured out and that he will not be as effective his second year in the majors, but he does strike people out and has performed well. 

Conclusion

Without too much trouble, and very little extra money spent by Omar this winter, the 2011 Mets roster could easily look like this:

C - Thole/Ramirez
1B - Davis/Ramirez/Evans
2B - Tejada/Murphy/Arias
SS - Reyes/Arias
3B - Wright/Murphy/Arias
LF - Bay/Carter/Evans
CF - Pagan/Beltran
RF - Beltran/Carter/Evans

SP - Santana
SP - Zambrano
SP - Niese
SP - Pelfrey
SP - Dickey

CL - Rodriguez
RP - Parnell
RP - Beimel
RP - Green
RP - Acosta
RP - Takahashi
RP - Igarashi

Is that team winning the NL East next year? Absolutely not. But there are some young players with upside, the bench has depth, versatility and power, along with a long-missing defensive prowess. The starting staff leaves a lot to be desired, and the only real hopes for 2012 in the bullpen are Parnell and Green. I would love to come up with a way for the Mets to trade for James Shields, or sign Bonderman outright, but sadly, Shields probably makes too much money for the Mets and Zambrano's salary slot is just replacing dead weight.

Perhaps more importantly, as a Mets fan, this team is younger, crazier and has some hope for the future. It sets the stage for 2012 when huge money from Beltran, K-Rod and (currently) Perez and Castillo come off the books and hopefully the next wave of minor league talent is ready.

Omar Minaya - Fuck You

Lets say that you're a National League GM, and you've witnessed pitcher after pitcher change leagues. You notice a pattern that every time a pitcher comes to the National League from the American League, they somehow improve. Brad Penny. John Smoltz. Roy Halladay. Jason Hammel. John Maine. Ian Kennedy. Carlos Silva. Dan Haren. Jon Garland. And you look at pitchers that go the other way and get rocked. Josh Beckett. Kevin Brown. Denny Neagle. Randy Johnson. Chan Ho Park. Carl Pavano.

If you were a smart GM, you would look for starters in the AL who could come over to the NL and prosper. Look at the Rockies with Hammel, the Cardinals with Penny and Smoltz and the Diamondbacks with Haren. No credit goes to Johan Santana coming to the Mets or Roy Halladay going to the Phillies because they were awesome in the AL as well.

Which brings us to the present day Boston Red Sox. Who have a right handed pitcher.. Who has worn out his welcome in Boston. Who strikes out a ton of guys, but can't keep his pitch count down enough to power through the tough AL East lineups. Talk about a guy who would be perfect for the front of the Mets rotation and who would benefit from the shorter lineups in the NL. We would probably only have to pay his salary at this point.

But no, no Dice-K for us. Omar Minaya: Fuck You. Oh, and if it's payroll constraints that are holding you back, Jeff Wilpon and Bernie Madoff: Fuck You Too. Think there's an Asian population in Flushing that might come to Dice-K's starts and fill some of your amazingly empty stadium?

Now, suppose you're the GM of a team that does not have an elite catching prospect in the minors, and whose only catching prospect close to the Major Leagues is left handed. And you happened to sign a perpetually shitty catcher this off-season who has happened to tear it up through this point in the season. And also suppose that there is a team who needs catching at the Major League level who also happens to have a semi-elite catching prospect they are willing to deal who hits right handed.

Would you think about trading for the catching prospect, sticking him in Triple A with your other young catcher (where they can also both get ABs at first since you just promoted the Chosen One and your third best hitter from Triple A. What they were doing there is beyond reason.) to ensure a better future for your franchise? Or do you selfishly hold onto your signing to prove how smart you are and in the vein attempt that it might save your job?

Omar Minaya. Fuck You.

The Peter Principle in Action

The Peter Principle is a relatively simple principle that states:

"In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence."

Well, it is apparent that nowhere is this more evident than in the world of sports. You can point to announcers, AAAA players who are too good to keep in the minors, but maybe not good enough to make it in the majors, and, most importantly, executives.

Isiah Thomas is a hall-of-fame basketball player, but as an executive, he was horrific. Now, to be fair, Isiah did have his strengths. He was a great talent evaluator. His drafts with both the Raptors and Knicks were well-above average. Ariza, McGrady, Chandler, all far outperformed their draft spots and expectations. He was also apparently great at whispering in old rich guys' ears and getting them to turn over basketball operations to them.

What he wasn't good at, was running a team. Now, if Isiah were simply a draft guru, or even a GM, with a strong President of Basketball Operations above him, things would have been very simple, and we would all be raving about his ability to find gems in the draft. A veritable Jerry West, pre-Grizzlies. But we're not. We're talking about his miserable failure and eternal skullfucking of the Knicks. And the Raptors. And the CBA. Fuck.

The other recent example of this is now Omar Minaya. Like Thomas, Minaya is apparently blessed with the ability to find some diamonds in the rough, and evaluate some young talent. Maybe not so much with pitching, but definately with hitters and fielders. He has a great track record of landing the big fish: Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd in Montreal, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez in New York. He has a decent track record with reclamation projects and finding cheap talent.

However, He has recently proven that once those diamonds are found, and the big fish are caught, he simply can not properly evaluate the baseball marketplace and find good trades to make his team better for the long term. This all culminates with Ryan Church for Jeff Francouer. Francouer might be the worst everyday player in the National League. There is general debate about just how good of a defensive outfielder he is, but the consensus is that he is above-average. Hey, guess what? Ryan Church is an above average defensive outfielder...who actually can hit a little. He's no world beater, but, come on, Jeff Francouer has sucked horribly for two years! And it's not like he has the track record of Gary Sheffield, a worthwhile reclamation project, who had no cost to acquire. Many news organizations were speculating that the Braves had soured on Frenchy so much that they were going to release him.

Let me say that again. Omar just traded our most consistent outfielder, and our only regular playing above-average defense...for someone who was going to be released...Well, I guess you could say that we needed a right-handed bat in a division with such tough lefties like...Scott Olsen? Sure, the Phillies have lefties, but those lefties rely on changeups, which actually makes righties WORSE matchups! But the final nail in the coffin for this trade...is that Jim Bowden thinks it's a good trade for the Mets!