The WFAN Underground

In Defense of Josh Thole

2011-09-04T16:16:00.000-04:00

Derek Jeter.

Mark Tiexeira.

Robinson Cano.

What do these players all have in common? If you said they are all overpaid, you'd be right. If you said they are all overvalued, you'd be right. If you said they all have an on-base percentage lower than Josh Thole, you'd be...right?

Thole currently sits at a .355 OBP.

His defense is disappointing. Whereas last year, he was exactly average defensively, with 0 runs created or lost, this season so far he has cost the Mets 4 runs with his sub-par defense (non-scientific observation: he is lazy on balls in the dirt and needs to work on his transfer speed on throws to 2nd). He has a lot of work to do if he wants to stick in the majors as a Catcher, as teams tend to favor defense behind the plate (and with the Mets, he has no future at first, or even platooning there, with lefty hitting Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda all impressing).

But he has given the Mets exactly what they need as part of an organizational change of philosophy: a good eye and some patience at the plate. Among Catchers with at least 250 PAs, he sits at 6th in the majors in BB%, 7th in K%, 11th in AVG, 8th in OBP and is just about a league average hitter by the wRC+ metric, all while playing his home games in an extreme pitcher's park.

It may turn out that Josh Thole goes the way of Vance Wilson and Jason Phillips before him. But if he can improve his defense, or at least stop his defensive decline, a league average hitter at the Catcher position will have tremendous value to the Mets going forward.

Overpaying for Prince

2011-08-23T11:28:00.000-04:00

This off-season, Prince Fielder will be a free agent. He will get paid a lot of money by a Major League baseball team. It will not be for his physique (Google suggested search: "Prince Fielder Fat"), but for his prodigious power production (Career Slugging %: 538). With that comes big HR and RBI totals, and a big pay day. He rejected a 5 year/$100 million offer from the Brewers before this season, so he is either planning on getting more money or more years than that, and he has done nothing to make us think he will not. He currently sits third in the NL in homers, first in RBIs, fourth in BB%, third in ISO, second in OBP, fourth in slugging and fifth in wOBA.

He is really, really good with the bat. Really good.

He is also, ironically, a really, bad fielder. Really bad.

The value of his bad defense is hard to quantify, but that is not the exercise we are looking to take on here.

A more abstract thought crossed my mind as I watched Mr. Fielder's Brewers destroy the Mets this weekend: Prince Fielder will be overpaid this off-season.

I know, ground breaking stuff you say. Free agents are always overpaid, you say. RBIs are overvalued in free agency you say. Offense is overvalued in free agency you say. Yes, yes, yes I say. But I believe he will be overpaid for another reason:

His Prince-ness.

His father was a major leaguer. He is a vegan. He is fat. His father named him Prince when he lived in Minnesota in the 80's. He has an awesome beard. All account are that he is a good guy. He is working on a mini-afro. He is really, really fat. He hits the ball really, really far. He is one of the few African-American stars of the game.

All of these facts bring him into the public consciousness more often, and, I would argue, into the subconsciousness of owners and GMs in the game. This will in turn make him more money than he deserves as purely Prince Fielder, ball player. I would argue that all of those facts will make Prince Fielder get paid more than if he was named or looked like Ryan Braun.

What K-Rod's Games Finished Option Means

2011-06-12T22:09:00.000-04:00

As every Met fan knows, Omar Minaya is the gift that keeps on giving. Still paying the likes of Gary Matthews Jr, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez, the Mets have big money still due to Johan Santana (a relatively defensible contract) and Jason Bay, both of whom are unlikely to even be average players for the Mets. However, the biggest poison pill of them all for the immediate future is the $17.5 million option for K-Rod. $17.5 million. For a closer. A good, not great closer.

But, the point is not to continue piling on Omar Minaya. That is just too easy. The point is to analyze the option, and the pace K-Rod is on. Right now, with 25 games finished, K-Rod is on pace for 63 games finished, 8 over the 55 games finished threshold that would trigger maybe the worst one-year option...ever? I don't know, did Eric Byrnes have an option? Was Moises Alou's contract an option year?

There is only one question to be asked: HOW IS HE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT FIGURE???

This option being triggered would be a colossal mistake, would set us back years, could prevent us from signing Reyes, or force a trade of Wright. He only has 18 saves, and 1 blown save. That means that 6 times Terry Collins brought him in with no save opportunity. Tie game, blowouts, getting some work in, Collins has had no hesitation about using K-Rod in every possible situation.

I am not blaming Terry Collins. He is the team's day-to-day manager. Unless he gets told otherwise by his employers, his job is to win as many games as possible. And he has done a bang up job recently, keeping a pretty bad Mets team close to .500. Kudos to him.

No, this is squarely on the shoulders of the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson. Any class organization would go to the manager and tell him in no uncertain terms that the option can NOT vest, and if he has a problem with that, they will find someone who will make sure it doesn't happen. If Collins had only brought K-Rod in in save situations, he would be on pace for 48 games finished, and K-Rod's (genius) agent would have no grievances.

This just further demonstrates the deficiency of the Mets organization as a whole, and it will be a shame if K-Rod is in a Met uniform next year instead of Jose Reyes or David Wright.

Why the Melo Trade Was Good

2011-05-04T11:27:00.000-04:00

Despite being swept by the Celtics, having few draft picks, and possibly minimal cap room, depending on where it get set, the Knicks are in a vastly better position than they were before the Melo trade. Yes, we need depth, a center, a point guard who isn't a member of AARP and some three-point shooting, but the presence of two super stars (yes, super stars) at the forward spots puts us in a position to be among the NBA's elite. According to John Hollinger's PER ranking, the following are the pairs of teammates to rank in the top 20 in the NBA:

Melo/Amare - Knicks
Wade/James - Heat
Durant/Westbrook - Thunder
Bryant/Gasol - Lakers
Duncan/Ginobli - Spurs

Expand it to the top 30, and the only other team with more than one is the Celtics, with Pierce and Garnett.

What do those teams have in common?

The one, two and three seeds in the Eastern and Western Conference playoffs. The only exception is Chicago, with the league's MVP at #9 and Carlos Boozer at #40.

They are all also still alive in the playoffs, except for the Spurs.

Our super stars have many issues (Amare doesn't rebound and neither play any defense), but their pairing is a start towards greatness. Maybe Gallo turns into Dirk 2.0 or Chandler into Melo 2.0, but we have the original now, and the Knicks future is only looking better for it.

Looking Back at the 2011 Mets Roster Construction

2011-04-27T20:07:00.000-04:00

In September, 2010, I theorized as to what a (sort of) contending New York Mets roster might look like. A lot has happened since then. Johan's recovery from surgery has taken a LONG time. Omar was (sort of) let go. Sandy came on, as did an army of front office executives (an under appreciated Mets weakness these past few years). From day one, Sandy basically admitted that 2011 would NOT be a contending Mets team, and the start to their season would do nothing to make us think anything different.

My theoretical roster, from September:

"C - Thole/Ramirez
1B - Davis/Ramirez/Evans
2B - Tejada/Murphy/Arias
SS - Reyes/Arias
3B - Wright/Murphy/Arias
LF - Bay/Carter/Evans
CF - Pagan/Beltran
RF - Beltran/Carter/Evans

SP - Santana
SP - Zambrano
SP - Niese
SP - Pelfrey
SP - Dickey

CL - Rodriguez
RP - Parnell
RP - Beimel
RP - Green
RP - Acosta
RP - Takahashi
RP - Igarashi"

Some hits, some misses. Obviously Santana is hurt and without contending, there was no point in trading for Carlos Zambrano (although his start so far is encouraging). Niese, Pelfrey and Dickey are the top three Mets starters, unfortunately. Chris Young could be trade bait if he stays healthy and should be gone about the same time Santana is due to come back. Capuano is much the same, and will probably be replaced with Gee when he is ready/when Capuano is traded. Lets call that 4/5ths of the starting rotation.

The bullpen, as with all bullpens was hard to call. Who saw Jason Isringhausen coming out of retirement and the Mets selecting Pedro Beato in the Rule 5 draft and him being lights out? Byrdak is the situational lefty that Biemel could have been. 4/7 in the pen.

Thole is the starting catcher, and is looking pretty good. Davis is entrenched at 1st. Murphy is in a platoon with someone (currently Justin Turner, but, come on) at 2nd. Reyes and Wright hold down the left side. The backup infielder is Hu, not Arias, but same difference. My big whiff was in the backup outfield, where I wanted the Mets to give power and patience some run (and it's odd, cause it would go along with Sandy's philosophy, but oh well) with Carter and Evans, but instead the Mets have gone with defense and scrappiness with Hairston and Harris. So, let's say 9/13.

Thats a total of 17/25. Not bad.

Yankees Abuse the DL?

2011-04-26T01:30:00.000-04:00

Last year, Phil Hughes finally made good on the hype that had been built up by the Yankees and Peter Gammons. He had an xFIP of just over 4 in over 175 innings as a 24 year old. He was penciled in as the Yankees' #2 starter this season, and everyone assumed that he would take another step forward, especially since his peripherals matched his performance.
photo © 2008 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Well, this season he has sucked. An ERA of almost 14 over 10 innings (3 starts!) led the Yankees to question what was wrong with him. Almost immediately, they put him on the DL with a "dead arm". Today it was reported that he had a significant setback while throwing a bullpen session, although he reported no pain. ESPN's Stephania Bell reported:

"As ESPN New York reported, however, Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild indicated this may not be a true dead-arm scenario because Hughes never demonstrated velocity on the ball since reporting to spring training.

On the one hand, the fact there is no overt structural issue is a positive. On the other hand, it can make trying to tackle an invisible enemy all the more frustrating."

Now, one might ask what the issue with this is? Two words. Oliver Perez.

The Mets searched for two seasons for a solution to Perez' "dead arm" (Yes, I am aware that a dead arm is an actual injury. I only quotate the term because it seems that Hughes does not have a dead arm, but rather just sucks, and hence, him being on the DL is fishy at best). They openly campaigned for him to be on the DL. They begged him to go to the minors to work on his "issues" (read: suckiness).

But rather than stash him on the DL or have him agree to the minor league batters that were more on his level, a saga got played out in the press, with Ollie basically stating that since he was being paid $12 million, he saw no need to be in the minors. Only after he began openly limping did he agree that his knee was an issue, and went on the DL, only to come off as soon as eligible, creating more roster issues for the Mets.

It pains me to say this, but the Mets should look to how the Yankees handled their crappy pitcher issue for how to properly handle roster decisions. If they came correct in most instances, they wouldn't have crappy pitchers holding them hostage, but rather looking to help out the organization.

Knicks Looking (Small) Forward?

2011-03-02T20:55:00.000-05:00

Remember Allan Houston? Latrell Sprewell? The Knicks once had two All-Star shooting guards, who they played at the same time (Sprewell usually played small forward, although he played point for a little bit as well) because they were so good, they needed them both on the court at the same time. So it is odd to look at Mike D'Antoni's system and not see the Knicks with ANY shooting guards on the roster, especially given how well shooting guards have done in his systems. (Anyone else think Allan Houston would have thrived in this system?)

Joe Johnson, Casey Jacobsen, Raja Bell, Quentin Richardson, Leandro Barbosa (really a combo guard), Eric Piatkowski. All shooting guards who played much better than their previous or post-D'Antoni careers (yes, Joe Johnson got a max contract, but, come on). In the Carmelo Anthony three-way trade, the Knicks got Corey Brewer, a talented, if erratic, shooting guard, from Minnesota. He was the only true shooting guard on the Knicks roster, with a good outside shot, and some effort on defense. What did Walsh/D'Antoni do? Buy him out.

Huh???

So now we are left with Bill Walker, Shawne Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Landry Fields, Renaldo Balkman, Derrick Brown, Jared Jeffries. That is 7 out of the 15 players on the Knick roster who are small forwards. Andy Rautins is basically PNG, so fully HALF of the Knicks players are small forwards.

Now, in D'Antoni's system, positions are a bit amorphous, but Shawne Williams at Center? Landry Fields as the starting shooting guard? The Knicks recent moves expose some serious roster construction flaws, not the least of which is the lack of a shoot guard OR center.

This system is built on making opponents pay for leaving shooters open, and Donnie and D'Antoni have managed to construct a roster with as little shooting as possible. How are Derrick Brown and Jared Jeffries a better fit for this roster than Corey Brewer, who, by the way, can also play small forward if needed?

Cliff Lee to the Phillies - Is This a Cosmic Joke on the Mets?

2010-12-14T09:51:00.001-05:00

So, apparently the Phillies have signed Cliff Lee, convincing him to leave $30,000,000 of the Steinbrenners' money on the table for the chance to team with Roy Halladay to form the best one-two, righty-lefty punch in MLB since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Oh, and the Phillies' rotation also includes Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt.

As a Met fan, what are my gripes about this? Is it the fact that Cole Hamels is now a #3 starter in our division? Is it the fact that this offseason, the Phillies have gotten not only the best pitcher and free agent at a discount, but they avoided overpaying their own free agent? No, it is the Phillies fortunes, for no real reason.

The Phllies traded for Cliff Lee mid-season, he was amazing for them, and then traded him away months later for an inferior package. Why did they do this? The superficial reason is that they needed to restock their farm system from the Roy Halladay trade, but the real reason was that they needed to save money. This, despite the fact that Cliff Lee made a (relatively) paltry $9.5 million last year. What did they need this money for? To overpay Joe Blanton, Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco, apparently.

So, less that a year after Philadelphia traded away one of the three best pitchers in baseball, he then resigns with them, AT A DISCOUNT. After Roy Halladay had ALREADY signed at a discount for some reason, leaving probably $50,000,000 on the table (although, technically an extension).

What I don't understand is that the Phillies are not an intelligent organization. They have made just as many missteps as the Mets. Just in recent memory, they have overpaid for Blanton, Ibanez and Polanco, traded away Lee, taken away at-bats from Dominic Brown in favor of Ibanez, given Ryan Howard one of the five worst contracts in baseball THAT HASN'T EVEN STARTED YET, and kept a pitcher with an ERA on the wrong side of 6 in the closer's roll.

And their reward for this is that two of the best pitchers in baseball sign there at a discount.

Contrast this with the Mets fortunes.

When they traded for Santana, he gave them no discount at all. When Beltran was a free agent, his agent Scott Boras was calling other teams, offering them a discount so he wouldn't have to play for the Mets. Pedro came because Omar gave him more years than he deserved, and if not for Jayson Werth, Jason Bay might be the most overpaid corner outfielder in the NL East. Where are people sacrificing money to play in Queens?

Now, the Mets have made plenty of organizational mistakes, but no more than the Phillies. Oliver Perez has been SO useless, his contract, although nowhere near the size and length of Howard's, might be worse. Jeff Francouer was probably about as bad as Ibanez is (but was paid less, and ultimately exiled), and Luis Castillo is our albatross underperforming infielder to match Polanco. We even have our own talented rookie, to match Brown, whose growth was stunted last year by overrated and underperforming veterans in Ike Davis!

So why does Philadelphia get the honor of watching Halladay and Lee pitch together for the next five years, at a rate FAR below what they could have commanded? It is obviously not the congenial nature of the fans, nor the competence of the front office. And why don't the Mets ever get similar treatment?

What ever could it be?

The New York Mets 2011 Roster

2010-09-01T10:58:00.000-04:00

Since the trading deadline is effectively over, let's take a look at our current roster, along with who will be back next year, and then see what holes there might be to fill.

Let us assume that in addition to the starting 8 position players, we want a backup C, MI, CI and 2 backup OFs. Let's assume that carrying three catchers is NOT going to happen next year, at least on opening day. The pitching staff should ideally consist of 5 SPs, a swingman, a closer, two lefties (one being a LOOGY) and three righties, one who can ideally get us some ground ball outs.

In addition, we must be VERY cost conscious in creating this roster, because as anyone who has attended a game at CitiField (or not) can tell you, the Wilpons will be very cost conscious this off-season. A general goal should also be to have a deeper, more flexible bench, get younger and more athletic, and get some pitchers who don't walk the world.

No doubt about it, jobs are safe:

David Wright (3B)
Jose Reyes (SS)
Ruben Tejada (2B/SS)
Ike Davis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
Angel Pagan (CF)
Josh Thole (C)
Johan Santana (SP)
Mike Pelfrey (SP)
RA Dickey (SP)
Jon Neise (SP)
Bobby Parnell (RP)

12 of the 25 Spots filled.

Borderline (Should be on the team)

Carlos Beltran (CF) - Only included in this section because of recent chatter of the Mets attempting to trade him. I believe that would be a giant mistake at this point. When healthy and motivated, he is one of the best players in baseball. A full year removed from mysterious knee surgery, brace free, and in a Scott Boras contract drive, he should have a monster year a la his last year in Kansas City/Houston. A move to right field is in order, but we'll worry about that later.

Chris Carter (1B/LF/RF) - Looking up and down the offense of this team, there is a serious lack of left-handed power aside from Davis and possibly Beltran. Throw in the fact that he can actually take a walk and he is sorely needed on this team. I realize the Mets have reservations about his defense, but they lived with Luis Castillo for the better part of three year and Daniel Murphy for one in LF. He should be on this team, as part of a platoon in the OF or a corner OF sub or pinch-hitter extraordinaire.

Daniel Murphy (3B/2B/1B/LF) - So he's not going to hit over .300 and be our left fielder of the future. I can live with that. What he can be is a left-handed Mark DeRosa, or, to use an example closer to home, a left-handed Joe McEwing (non-SS version). He is working out at 2B, the position the Mets should have used him in, and he can platoon with, or backup Ruben Tejada, in an offense/defense, left/right platoon at 2B.

Ryota Igarashi (RP) - Ehh. He's under contract, and can probably be mildly more effective than he has been lately; his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA.

Sean Green (RP) - Ground ball machine (Career: 62% GB%!!!) who is working is way back. Pretty much all that is left from the disastrous Putz/Chavez deal. These last few weeks will go a long way towards determining his role on the 2011 Mets, if any, but he deserves a chance.

Manny Acosta (RP) - Like many Met pitchers, he needs to stop walking the world (career minor league walks per 9 innings pitched: Over FIVE), but this season he has performed reasonably well, is cheap, and seems to have a little fight in him

Nick Evans (LF/RF/1B) - He's slugged over .450 in each of his last two minor league seasons and is young and cheap (see a pattern here?). More importantly, we need to see what he can do to understand if he is going to be a part of the next generation of Mets winners.

Francisco Rodriguez (RP) - I think the $11 million+ that K-Rod is due next year could be put to MUCH better use, but I doubt that the team will be able to void his contract. At least this latest dust up means that he will not be able to easily achieve is disgusting $17.5 million option for 2012.

Joaquin Arias (SS/2B/1B/3B) - Basically, a faster, younger, cheaper version of Alex Cora, but one who actually has some room to improve, rather than only possibly going down in performance. Also, can play a decent SS. Traded for A-Rod.

21 of 25 Spots filled.

Borderline (Should NOT be on the team)

Jenrry Mejia (SP) - Not that we don't all love the kid, but look at what Tampa Bay has done with their young pitchers. They are trained in the minors, stretched out until they are ready to come up and dominate. If he is going to be on the team next year, it should be as a call-up, a #7 SP, once he has proven himself in the minors.

Jeff Francouer (RF) - Ha. Thank you Omar.

Fernando Martinez (RF/CF/LF) - He has not shown us enough while up here to warrant a spot, and he has not shown an ability to stay healthy in the minor leagues. A la Mejia, keep him in AA or AAA and let him rake before we call him up and unleash him on the unsuspecting NL East.

Fernando Tatis (3B/1B/2B/SS/RF/LF) - Ha ha.

Spots left to fill

Backup C, 2 LHP RP, 1 (good) SP

As Thole is young and you can never have too many backup catchers seems to be Omar's motto,
the Backup C should hit from the right side of the plate, and probably be capable of giving Davis a day off here or there against a tough lefty (although his splits aren't bad at all). The SP should be someone who strikes people out, something the Mets have been missing for far too long (Al Leiter? Mike Hampton? Doc Gooden?).

Targets in Trades

Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden (Cs - Texas) - Both are slugging right handed catchers in the Texas Rangers system. Teagarden has been playing more than Ramirez lately, backing up Bengie Molina (hey, Mets fans, glad we didn't sign him?) and slugging over .400. Ramirez is known to be a little defensively challenged, which is probably why the contending Rangers have gone with Teagarden as their primary backup. Either would make a fine platoon partner with Thole, with 5 or 10 starts at first thrown in there. The main obstacle to acquiring either of these guys is not that they are both young, inexpensive and under team control next year, but that the Rangers are not a silly organization, like the Reds, Cubs, Royals or Mets, willing to give away younger talent for nothing. Acquiring one of them will take a Familia or a Martinez, and it might be time for the Mets to sell high on one of them. Teagarden is a LITTLE closer to free agency, so the Rangers might be a little more willing to deal him.

Mike Napoli (C - Los Angeles (AL)) -A long shot, perhaps, but remember that earlier in the year Napoli sat over half the time in favor of Jeff Mathis. Let me repeat that. Jeff Mathis. This, with a manager who used to be a catcher? It is obvious that Anaheim undervalues Napoli a bit, and he has even played some 1B this year with Kendry Morales' ankle injury. With Morales coming back next year, Mathis healed, a young catcher coming up and the DH spot possibly being filled with Bobby Abreu, Napoli could once again be relegated to backup duty or long stretches on the bench, despite seeing another season of over 20 HRs in limited duty.

Ryan Doumit (C/RF/1B - Pittsburgh) - A switch-hitting catcher whose slugging % has never been below .400, and has topped .500 as recently as two years ago. Not an ideal solution, but is flexible enough to fidn some at-bats elsewhere in the lineup. Let's not forget that they just traded for Chris Snyder, who makes more money than Doumit, and have Tony (Dirty) Sanchez, a recent first round pick whose main attribute was being close to major-league ready.

Carlos Zambrano (SP - Chicago (NL)) - The main problem with Zambrano (aside from being, well, crazy and owning a declining strikeout rate) is his contract. He makes $18 million next year and in 2012 (his vesting player option is based on finishing in the top 4 of Cy Young voting....making it not likely to take effect). Coincidentally, the Mets have two pariahs of their own, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, who combine to make $18 million next year and who should not be a part of the team. Zambrano has given no indication that he will accept a trade, but then again, he has said some crazy stuff in the past. For someone with Zambrano's ability to strike people out and the low mileage on his arm these past two years, he is well worth the gamble. Get him on Slim-Fast and he might bring something to the table aside from his gut. As for the Cubs, they will be saying goodbye to Sweet Lou this off-season, they could use a 2B (having traded away Derek Lee and thinking about switching Aramis Ramirez to 1B, they could make Blake DeWitt back into a 3B), especially one who hits from the left side. As for Perez, well, lets hope that they're crazy? Maybe some money gets thrown in to compensate for the fact that Perez is maybe the worst player in baseball, but there is something there.

James Shields (SP - Tampa Bay) - Everyone knows that the Rays will be going through a transition next year, with their owner announcing a major slash to their already minor payroll. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are as good as gone, but the Rays have major-league ready replacements in Desmond Jennings and possible Matt Joyce and Willy Aybar at 1B. What they also have is a kid by the name of Jeremy Hellickson, who is knocking on the door and will break through this off-season, as he is currently on the David Price postseason reliever program. He makes $4.25 million next year, which would make him the highest paid Ray, depending on what they did in arbitration with Jason Bartlett and BJ Upton and what they do with Dan Wheeler's option. Matt Garza could also get more through arbitration. If the Rays are looking to slash payroll even more, they could look to trade Shields, who is no better than their #3 starter. Imagine him if he wasn't facing the Yankees and Red Sox?

Targets in Free Agency

Let's just get rid of great names like Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee right now. Not only are they too rich for the Wilpon's blood, but they are not native Spanish speakers, so Omar can't do his thing that offended Carlos Delgado so much. Victor Martinez will get too much money from the Red Sox to stay, or from the Angels to replace Napoli or from the Mariners to replace whatever cadaver they currently have playing C. Some realistic targets might include:

Jeremy Bonderman (SP) -Sadly, probably still too rich for the Wilpon's blood, and has been making noise about retiring if he doesn't go back to Detroit.

Brandon Webb (SP) - His option is too rich for rebuilding Arizona's blood. Maybe on an incentive-laden deal he make sense?

Dennys Reyes (RP) - Reliable National league reliever, who might fly under the radar.

Joe Beimel (RP) - Mets should have signed him this offseason. Now they get a second bite at the (home run) apple.

Hisanoria Takashi (RP/SP) - Would fill the role of swingman well. I am concerned that his delivery will be figured out and that he will not be as effective his second year in the majors, but he does strike people out and has performed well.

Conclusion

Without too much trouble, and very little extra money spent by Omar this winter, the 2011 Mets roster could easily look like this:

C - Thole/Ramirez
1B - Davis/Ramirez/Evans
2B - Tejada/Murphy/Arias
SS - Reyes/Arias
3B - Wright/Murphy/Arias
LF - Bay/Carter/Evans
CF - Pagan/Beltran
RF - Beltran/Carter/Evans

SP - Santana
SP - Zambrano
SP - Niese
SP - Pelfrey
SP - Dickey

CL - Rodriguez
RP - Parnell
RP - Beimel
RP - Green
RP - Acosta
RP - Takahashi
RP - Igarashi

Is that team winning the NL East next year? Absolutely not. But there are some young players with upside, the bench has depth, versatility and power, along with a long-missing defensive prowess. The starting staff leaves a lot to be desired, and the only real hopes for 2012 in the bullpen are Parnell and Green. I would love to come up with a way for the Mets to trade for James Shields, or sign Bonderman outright, but sadly, Shields probably makes too much money for the Mets and Zambrano's salary slot is just replacing dead weight.

Perhaps more importantly, as a Mets fan, this team is younger, crazier and has some hope for the future. It sets the stage for 2012 when huge money from Beltran, K-Rod and (currently) Perez and Castillo come off the books and hopefully the next wave of minor league talent is ready.

Omar Minaya - Fuck You

2010-05-25T10:43:00.000-04:00

Lets say that you're a National League GM, and you've witnessed pitcher after pitcher change leagues. You notice a pattern that every time a pitcher comes to the National League from the American League, they somehow improve. Brad Penny. John Smoltz. Roy Halladay. Jason Hammel. John Maine. Ian Kennedy. Carlos Silva. Dan Haren. Jon Garland. And you look at pitchers that go the other way and get rocked. Josh Beckett. Kevin Brown. Denny Neagle. Randy Johnson. Chan Ho Park. Carl Pavano.

If you were a smart GM, you would look for starters in the AL who could come over to the NL and prosper. Look at the Rockies with Hammel, the Cardinals with Penny and Smoltz and the Diamondbacks with Haren. No credit goes to Johan Santana coming to the Mets or Roy Halladay going to the Phillies because they were awesome in the AL as well.

Which brings us to the present day Boston Red Sox. Who have a right handed pitcher.. Who has worn out his welcome in Boston. Who strikes out a ton of guys, but can't keep his pitch count down enough to power through the tough AL East lineups. Talk about a guy who would be perfect for the front of the Mets rotation and who would benefit from the shorter lineups in the NL. We would probably only have to pay his salary at this point.

But no, no Dice-K for us. Omar Minaya: Fuck You. Oh, and if it's payroll constraints that are holding you back, Jeff Wilpon and Bernie Madoff: Fuck You Too. Think there's an Asian population in Flushing that might come to Dice-K's starts and fill some of your amazingly empty stadium?

Now, suppose you're the GM of a team that does not have an elite catching prospect in the minors, and whose only catching prospect close to the Major Leagues is left handed. And you happened to sign a perpetually shitty catcher this off-season who has happened to tear it up through this point in the season. And also suppose that there is a team who needs catching at the Major League level who also happens to have a semi-elite catching prospect they are willing to deal who hits right handed.

Would you think about trading for the catching prospect, sticking him in Triple A with your other young catcher (where they can also both get ABs at first since you just promoted the Chosen One and your third best hitter from Triple A. What they were doing there is beyond reason.) to ensure a better future for your franchise? Or do you selfishly hold onto your signing to prove how smart you are and in the vein attempt that it might save your job?

Omar Minaya. Fuck You.

Monday Night Football: Why only 16/17ths?

2010-01-04T20:55:00.000-05:00

Here we are, Monday night, 9 pm, and I feel like there is something missing from my life. What is it? Oh, that's right; Monday Night Football.

Why the hell don't I have Monday Night Football?

For 16 weeks, we have been able to extend our football pleasure for one more night. But not for week 17.

WHY???

Well, apparently the NFL hates its viewers. Throughout Week 17's Sunday, scenarios were bandied about. If New England wins, if the Jets lose, if the Eagles beat the Cowboys.

But imagine if there was a Monday Night game, that was integral to the Playoffs? Imagine if the Jets-Bengals game or the Cowboys-Eagles game was on Monday night? Viewership would have been through the roof! If all the seeds were settled except for ONE final game?

Why can't we have this? It would be too much fun? We need to have the day filled with news about Jim Zorn, Mike Shanahan, Bill Sheridan and whether or not Wes Welker should have been on the field? Come on Heir Goodell, have a little fun!

Francesa does it again!

2009-12-29T13:01:00.000-05:00

On his blazing Sunday morning NFL show, Francesa started out with this gem:

"There is so many myriad of possibilities"

What makes this so funny is not that it was one of the first sentences he used to start his show, but that a few sentences later, he CORRECTLY used the word myriad.

Of course, he then went on to call Jim Caldwell "Jim Cardwell", and Colts GM Bill Polian "Bill Polio", so I guess misusing myriad is the least of his troubles.

Francesca sucks ball again...

2009-12-29T10:19:00.000-05:00

And can't even talk:

Just heard him say that Detroit is in the midst of an economic "turn down." Hmmmmm.

The Curious Case of Anthony Hargrove

2009-11-18T11:44:00.005-05:00

The St. Louis Rams have had quite a precipitous fall from greatness since their high points in 1999 and 2001. Staff turnover and an unsettled ownership situation certainly have contributed to their poor results, but there is a different problem that I want to tackle today.

Everyone knows about the Rams poor drafting record. Sure, they wasted the first three rounds of the draft from 2000 - 2008. Trung Candidate, Jacoby Shephard, John St. Clair, Damione Lewis, Adam Archuleta, Ryan Pickett, Tommy Polley, Brian Allen, Robert Thomas, Travis Fisher, Lamar Gordon, Eric Crouch, Jimmy Kennedy, Piso Tinoisamoa, Kevin Curtis, Steven Jackson, Anthony Hargrove, Alex Barron, Ron Bartell, O.J. Atogwe, Richie Incognito, Tye Hill, Joe Klopfenstein, Claude Wroten, Jon Alston, Dominique Byrd, Adam Carriker, Brian Leonard, Jonathon Wade, Chris Long, Donnie Avery, John Greco. What do they all have in common?

Yes, they mostly suck.

But more importantly, how many are still with the organization? There is nary a star amongst the bunch, although the Rams from the 2007 and 2008 draft still have a chance (lets hope).

What there are among that group is some solid NFL starters, far superior to what the Rams have right now, or whose retention may have created additional problems for the Rams.

Ryan Pickett: Let go to sign with the Green Bay Packers for 4 years/$14 million. Starting nose tackle in their 3-4 defense. Think the Rams could use a run stuffer in the middle at that price right now?

John St. Clair: Starting Right Tackle for the Cleveland Browns. Sure, the Browns may be the only team in the NFL with a smaller talent base than the Rams, and St. Clair isn't a starting tackle on a championship, or even playoff, team, but keeping St. Clair until he developed could have kept the Rams from taking Alex Barron, and instead had them draft Roddy White, Aaron Rodgers, Marlin Jackson, Logan Mankins, Michael Roos, Lofa Tatupu or Justin Miller, all of whom were drafted after Barron.

Damione Lewis: Currently the starting Defensive Tackle for the Carolina Panthers. Not great, but they have won three more games than the Rams, and may very well make the playoffs.

Mike Furrey: Currently on the Cleveland Browns, previously somewhat of a star for the Detroit Lions. Plays a little safety, wide receiver, special teams. All around hard nosed player. Caught 98 passes for over 1,000 yards in 2006 for the Lions.

Kevin Curtis: Allowed to sign with the Philadelphia Eagles, played extremely well as their #2 option until knee surgery this year.

Anthony Hargrove: Currently starting Defensive Tackle for the undefeated New Orleans Saints. Has been moved around from DE to DT, but was let go by the Rams for a 5th round pick to the Buffalo Bills. Retaining him and allowing him to develop could have prevented the Rams from drafting Carriker and Long, and instead we could be watching a team with Matt Ryan at Quarterback and Darrelle Revis at Cornerback, to name just the players drafted immediately after those d-line busts.

My point isn't so much that the Rams have drafted poorly, which they undoubtedly have, but instead that they have allowed a lot of talent to leave the organization, which has only compounded their poor drafting. Hell, even Kurt Warner was the NFC starter in the Super Bowl last year! The Rams need to start keeping talent, and even just starters, in their organization. It creates value, which can be traded or allowed to develop alongside other talent, something the Rams desperately need if they are to get back to the top of the NFL again.

Francesca sucks ball

2009-09-25T14:20:00.001-04:00

And can't even talk:

Just heard him say that Detroit is in the midst of an economic "turn down." Hmmmmm.

My dream come true

2009-09-25T13:53:00.001-04:00

I just wet myself

2009-09-24T15:57:00.002-04:00

A WFAN Listener's Dream?

2009-09-23T13:38:00.001-04:00

Mike Francesa is Lactating

2009-09-21T00:36:00.002-04:00

The Mets Rotation Next Year: Not as Bad as You'd think

2009-08-07T22:28:00.005-04:00

As I settle in to watch the great Oliver Perez and his 7.03 ERA take on his original team, the San Diego Padres, as any rational Met fan, I began to think about next season. Although our offense needs improvement, I think that some of that will come from regression to means, and health. The bullpen, with K-Rod, Putz in his option year, maybe even Wagner in his option year and Feliciano and Stokes rounding it out, shoudl be fine. My real concern, especially given the new park, is the starting rotation. And I was thinking that Oliver Perez' contract made the idea of a strong starting rotation next year an impossibility. But check this out.

Every good starting rotation needs 7 starters. Your first three are locked in, while your last two spots can rotate among three pitcher throughout the year, with one in reserve for the inevitable injury. Now, the Mets have the #1 slot filled, with Johan. Pelfrey has battled enough this season that I feel reasonably comfortable that he can be at least a good #3. Obviously, this means that the #2 slot needs to be filled. I think the perfect candidate is John Lackey (coming from a tougher league and division, and possibly injured, shouldn't be too expensive), but there will be trade options with teams looking to dump contracts. Or we could always go for an Erik Bedard or Doug Davis or Jason Marquis or Brett Myers.

So, that leaves two slots to be filled at the end of the rotation. Candidates for those spots include: John Maine, Oliver Perez, Bobby Parnell, Fernando Nieve, Coney Island native Nelson Figueroa, Jonathon Neise, and maybe even Brad Holt. Now, what do these pitchers all have in common? With the (notable) exception of Perez, they're all making at or close to the league minimum. So, if one of them wins the other spot behind Perez, the Mets will be spending $12 million on two rotation slots. With the average Major League salary about $3 million, not the ideal way to spend your resources, but not as bad as $12 million on one slot.

Now if only he could stop walking everyone on earth...

The Peter Principle in Action

2009-07-11T11:10:00.005-04:00

The Peter Principle is a relatively simple principle that states:

"In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence."

Well, it is apparent that nowhere is this more evident than in the world of sports. You can point to announcers, AAAA players who are too good to keep in the minors, but maybe not good enough to make it in the majors, and, most importantly, executives.

Isiah Thomas is a hall-of-fame basketball player, but as an executive, he was horrific. Now, to be fair, Isiah did have his strengths. He was a great talent evaluator. His drafts with both the Raptors and Knicks were well-above average. Ariza, McGrady, Chandler, all far outperformed their draft spots and expectations. He was also apparently great at whispering in old rich guys' ears and getting them to turn over basketball operations to them.

What he wasn't good at, was running a team. Now, if Isiah were simply a draft guru, or even a GM, with a strong President of Basketball Operations above him, things would have been very simple, and we would all be raving about his ability to find gems in the draft. A veritable Jerry West, pre-Grizzlies. But we're not. We're talking about his miserable failure and eternal skullfucking of the Knicks. And the Raptors. And the CBA. Fuck.

The other recent example of this is now Omar Minaya. Like Thomas, Minaya is apparently blessed with the ability to find some diamonds in the rough, and evaluate some young talent. Maybe not so much with pitching, but definately with hitters and fielders. He has a great track record of landing the big fish: Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd in Montreal, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez in New York. He has a decent track record with reclamation projects and finding cheap talent.

However, He has recently proven that once those diamonds are found, and the big fish are caught, he simply can not properly evaluate the baseball marketplace and find good trades to make his team better for the long term. This all culminates with Ryan Church for Jeff Francouer. Francouer might be the worst everyday player in the National League. There is general debate about just how good of a defensive outfielder he is, but the consensus is that he is above-average. Hey, guess what? Ryan Church is an above average defensive outfielder...who actually can hit a little. He's no world beater, but, come on, Jeff Francouer has sucked horribly for two years! And it's not like he has the track record of Gary Sheffield, a worthwhile reclamation project, who had no cost to acquire. Many news organizations were speculating that the Braves had soured on Frenchy so much that they were going to release him.

Let me say that again. Omar just traded our most consistent outfielder, and our only regular playing above-average defense...for someone who was going to be released...Well, I guess you could say that we needed a right-handed bat in a division with such tough lefties like...Scott Olsen? Sure, the Phillies have lefties, but those lefties rely on changeups, which actually makes righties WORSE matchups! But the final nail in the coffin for this trade...is that Jim Bowden thinks it's a good trade for the Mets!

Is bigger better? A comparison between the average size of an american soccer player and counterparts in other "top notch" soccer countries.

2009-06-30T11:19:00.000-04:00

Don't be fooled by the mirage that was the American victory over the best national soccer team on Earth right now, Spain. A Spanish defender takes too long to clear a ball and a shot is completely misdirected by the Spanish keeper INTO the net, and we're an international powerhouse? American Soccer has arrived? Please. Brazil showed us how it is done by scoring five times (only three got counted) in the second half of the Confederations Cup final. A friend of mine who was an All-American and has won multiple amateur national championships suggested that we look at the following:

"The premise underlying the comparison is the US promotes size and strength when selecting youth talent for development. These "bigger" players have advantages of higher quality coaching, more consistent practice schedules, and better support for their future playing careers. However, as a soccer playing country, our emphasis on size and strength during early youth development might be misguided. Are we potentially missing better skilled players, because they are "late bloomers?" How does that affect: the MLS; Our National Team..."

Well, this is a tough thing to quantify, and is something that those who have not played or watched soccer at a high level in a non-American setting just instinctively KNOW. American soccer, at a College level (basically, the highest level competitively played in the US, as the MLS is too inconsistent to really have a style), is an approximate facsimile of the British and Irish games. Long passes, hard tackles, constant running and lots of long runs and playing in the air. Now, these attributes obviously lead to the style of play favoring larger players. But, against greater competition, it is to our own detriment.

Look at the last time the United States, England or Ireland won a World Cup? Well, England won once in 1966. That's it. Instead, the championship have been won by Italy, France, Germany, Brazil. Teams hat do not necessarily feature the largets players, but the most skilled.

I think that the best comparison might be college basketball versus the NBA. There are certain practices and styles of play that work well in college basketball. The press. Two good ball handlers. Big slow white guys. Try any of those in the pros, and you'll get laughed at. The level of play is just that much higher. And that is why the best college basketball players frequently don't make the best pros. It is much the same with American soccer. Sure, four huge guys in the back and some huge forwards battling them makes for good college soccer, but what happens when they try and take that style of play to the international level? Do we want someone red carded in every single game like we almost saw at the Confederations Cup? Like Tyler Hansborough in the NBA, it doesn't work.

When you look at the US National team, the only players that are under 5'9" are Donovan, Adu and Torres. Now, lets look at some of the best players in the world:

The best player in the world right now, Messi, is 5'7", as is Emre Belözoğlu. Javier Saviola is 5'6". Allessandro Del Piero is 5'8", as is Michael Owen and as was Roberto Baggio. Fabio Cannavaro, the sweeper of the defending world champions, is 5'9".

Notice anything? Yeah, they would all be among the smallest members of the US team. I believe, as does my friend, that this is a byproduct of the systems in place and the style of play practiced.

The United States' last game against Brazil is a perfect testament to this, as is one player in particular, one Jonathan Spector, the right full back. In the first half, Spector was playing a perfect American/British game (makes sense, as he also plays for West Ham in the Premier League). Hard tackles, mugging Brazilians as soon as they touched the ball, overcompensating for mistakes with hard recovery running. Well, the Americans as a whole played like that, and they were rewarded for their efforts with two goals, including one on a counterattack where Donovan basically outran the Brazilian defender.

But what happened in the second half? Where was Spector, or the American defense, when the Brazilians took to the air? Surely, their bigger size would give them an advantage on corners and set pieces? No, the Brazilians attacked with headers again and again, and their precision passing and superior skill took over as the game wore on and the Americans became more and more tired. The cream, as they say, rose to the top.

If Americans are ever going to get serious about playing soccer at an extremely high level, about getting over the hump to join the Italys, the Brazils, the Argentinas and the Spains of the World, we have to start thinking less along the lines of who looks good running and jumping for a while and start looking at who can provide the best play over 90 minutes. They may not be the Adonis or the tallest player, but who would you rather have playing for you? Cannavaro, at 5'9", or Spector, at 6'0"? Now ask yourself who most youth soccer coaches in the US would choose?

The Knicks: Fucked?

2009-06-24T15:49:00.006-04:00

As a sports loving male in his 20's, one of my favorite things to do used to be (is?) rebuilding my favorite sports teams via video game. The Mets with Brandon Webb and Francisco Liriano in their rotation? Sure. The Rams with Mario Williams at DE? Perfect. Of course, when you do this, you tend to keep those players that you love, that you WANT to see succeed. David Wright didn't go anywhere. Neither did Jose Reyes, or Ryan Church. Steven Jackson, Richie Incognito and OJ Agotwe? Not playing home games outside of Missouri.

Whats my point? Well, I'm a Knick fan. Always have been. Nothing was ever funnier to me than when Chris Rock said that Jermaine Jackson (R.I.P. Michael) was so greasy, he was glistening, "like Patrick Ewing in the fourth quarter. Somebody throw some sand on that nigga!!!!"

Lets run through an exercise here. Who from the Knicks would I keep, if I were playing a video game, i.e. Who do I want Donnie Walsh to keep in rebuilding the team (other than whoever LeBron tells him to)? And, I'm thinking long term (i.e. 2010), since we all know we're not going anywhere next year, and everyone knows that 2010 is when the real rebuilding (James, Wade, Bosh, Nowitzki, Stoudamire, etc...) begins.

Current Knick Players:

Wilson Chandler, Joe Crawford, Eddy Curry, Chris Duhon, Danilo Gallinari, Al Harrington, Larry Hughes, Chris Hunter, Jared Jeffries, David Lee, Cutino Mobley, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, Mouhamed Sene, Chris Wilcox, Jordan Hill

Get rid of Isiah's ongoing mistakes:
Now, we all know that Donnie is going to have to force that fat fuck Eddy Curry to retire (punch him in the heart a few times?), because there's no way he's retiring and Isiah apparently gave him a contract through 2015 that is only payable in cheez doodles. Jared Jeffries could be usable for Washington, or maybe Toronto, both of whom need someone, anyone, who can play D. Additionally, both of their contracts run through 2011, so they need to go.

Allow some contracts to expire.
One of Isiah's mistakes (to be fair, this started with not letting Ewing's contract expire) was always trading expiring contracts for longer ones. That is fine if you're Cleveland and you NEED to win this year and you're close, but the Knicks? Really? Big expiring contracts next year are Harrington, Hughes, Duhon and Q-Rich.

Flotsam and Jetsam.
Joe Crawford? Chris Hunter? Mouhamed Sene and Chris Wilcox? I thought Cuttino Mobley was retired?

Restricted Free Agents.
Everyone knows that David Lee and Nate Robinson are restricted free agents this season. Now, the best course of action is to either trade them for picks or let them sign a one-year tender and then resign or leave after another year of evaluation, but that's neither here nor there. Do I want them on the team? As much as I love Nate Dogg, I don't think he's a starter. And he will demand starter's minutes and money. So he's gone. And David Lee is a great rebounder...and that's about it. Again, not a starter on a championship team unless he's playing next to Duncan or Shaq in his prime. So they're probably gone for the overall good of the team.

What we're left with.

Danillo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Jordan Hill

Yeah, that's it. Sad? And I would love to see any of those traded for Ricky Rubio. Or Steve Nash. Or whoever can bring us LeBron.

Sad.

Turn this mother out?

2009-06-23T12:24:00.004-04:00

The New York Mets. Wow. We all knew before the season that the roster was top heavy. Santana. Beltran. Wright. Reyes. Rodriguez. Delgado. A combination of some improving young talent and this top-heavy collection of superstars was supposed to combine with some luck and allow us to surpass the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies. Optimistic? Maybe. But possible.

Now, the Mets roster has been ravaged by injuries and the question mark becomes...what to do? I think, despite us being only two games back of the Phillies, if Reyes, Beltran and Perez/Maine don't come back before the All-Star Break, the correct course of action is to reload. Not tear it down and rebuild, a la the Florida Marlins, but retool for next year. What does this entail? Glad you asked.

Playing Murphy 5 days a week at first. Last year, he hit the cover off the ball; this year, he's been up and down. But if he's proven one thing at this point, he can field the position. First base, despite the legendary stache, has been somewhat of a revolving door for the Mets. Olerud. Zeile. Piazza (!!!). Jacobs. Reed. Anderson. Offerman. Should I go on? Now, Delgado has been a great player for us, but his time is up. To bring a 39-year old DH back again to play first would be repeating the Alou mistake again. With an eye towards next season, Murphy should be on first, or at least showcased a la Jacobs.
Slowing down K-Rod. Yes, I know, he's been incredible. Better than expected. Worth every penny. But the hard-throwing K-Rod of years past is only available in bunches. He is an off-speed pitcher most of the time now (an incredible one at that). If the season is punted, what is the point of him wasting his valuable bullets on a meaningless season? This means he only pitches in some save opportunities, but we get to further evaluate what we have in Green, Stokes and possibly Holt at the end of the season.
Slowing down Feliciano. Again, incredible season. But does anyone think that Howard, Dunn, Utley and Ibanez are going anywhere next season? Left handed relievers often rely on deception to get outs, and although Feliciano does not as much as, say, Okajima, he does vary his arm slots and pitching styles frequently. Letting these dangerous lefties to get more looks at him can only be harmful next season.
Trying Parnell in the rotation. I know, I know, he's been crap lately as a reliever, what makes me think he could be a good starter? Well, I don't know, you don't know, and the Mets don't know if he'll be a good starter. The Mets have been lacking a hard-thrower in their rotation since the days of...help me out here...Gooden? The few games Dotel started early in his career? Worst case scenario, he flames out as a starter, goes back to the pen, and works through whatever he is going through. Best case, he shows some promise and there is some competition for Pelfrey, Perez and Maine next season. Now, this means someone gets bumped from the rotation...which leads me to my next point.
Trading veterans. Now, I'm not talking about Beltran, Wright, Rodriguez or Santana here. But wouldn't Philadelphia or the Dodgers like Livan Hernandez at the back of their rotations? Or maybe Tim Redding? Wouldn't a team like Texas or the Angels have use for a Sheffield/Delgado DH platoon? Brian Schneider? Anyone? No? Ok, moving along, couldn't the Mariners use Luis Castillo? Or maybe the Cardinals? Doesn't he seem like a player LaRussa would love? Or, Tatis to the White Sox? Kenny Williams is a little crazy. Maybe someone needs a good backup outfielder in Reed? Boston could use Cora as SS insurance, no? The point is, free up some money, some playing time, maybe even get some ok younger players back who can keep us from filling the minor league teams with the likes of Mike DeFelice or Bobby Keilty or, gulp, Jose Lima. Maybe a good reliever emerges. Or a decent backup second baseman, or half of a lefty/righty platoon for a corner outfield spot. Whats to lose?
Trading FOR veterans. I know, seems a little counter-productive...but not really. I'm talking about veterans, younger veterans, who can help this team for next season. Someone like...Adam Dunn? Jeremy Hermeida? Brian Roberts? Wade Davis? Carl Crawford? Alex Rios? Now, they all have their flaws, some might not be attainable or cost too much, but they can be effective pieces of a contending team next season. And maybe their teams are looking for something better THIS season?
Give Wagner and Church a chance. What the Mets organization has against these two (non-Latin) guys is beyond me. Leave Church alone for the rest of the season. He's under team control for a few more seasons, is relatively cheap, and gives good defense in a tough position at CitiField. He draws some walks, can steal a base here and there, hits for a little power, and carried the Mets for the majority of the first half of last season. Lets see what we have with him for next season. Also, lets see what Billy Wagner has left. Yes, he's annoying. Yes, he's a loud mouth. So what? He was death on lefties when he was full-speed, so even if he shows some flashes at the end of this season, lets exercise his option for next season. Yes, it's a little expensive, but only for one season. Imagine a bullpen where you trot out a healthy Wagner in the 7th inning, a healthy Putz in the 8th (assuming his option is exercised as well) and a rested K-Rod in the 9th???????
Think outside the box. The Mets organization has hesitated to do anything wacky. Except for playing Tatis at second. And short. And in right. Oh, and considering starting Takahasi. Oh, and closing with Luis Ayala. Oh, and playing a rookie third baseman in left. Oh, and playing an aging catcher at first. The thing these all have in common? They were forced. Lets see Murphy at second. Or Parnell in the rotation. Or Holt closing. Or Thule up here to mash some pinch-hit homers. Reward fans and evaluate what you have at the same time. Pick up Mike MacDougal off the scrap heap. Maybe he can get straightened out. Oh, wait, too late.

I realize that I'm panicking here. But I'm sick of seeing teams I root for going for the quick fix and patching things year after year after year. I want to see a quality youth movement, some smart trades, and some people I can root for, Omar Minaya included. Thoughts?

The Quality Start

2009-06-20T19:05:00.002-04:00

One of the many things that sets WFAN's Mike Francesa off is the concept of a "Quality Start". Consulting Wikipedia, we find out that a Quality Start is: "awarded to a starting pitcher who completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs." The article then goes on to bitch-slap Francesa upside the head by saying:

"An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91"

Now, discounting statistics (as Francesa doesn't seem to understand anything more complicated than RBIs, BA and W/L record), let's look at the definition of a Quality Start, and why it is a good indicator of a pitcher's performance in the most important area of the game, giving his team a chance to win (since he himself has no control over wins and losses).

Now, we've established that a Quality Start results in the opposing team scoring 4.5 runs per game. The MLB average ERA this year is 4.33, and the average MLB team scores 4.6 runs per game. So, a Quality Start results in a more or less league average performance. So why is a league average performance deemed "quality"?

Well, once again, ignoring the exhaustive research performed by Bill James which proves this point, there is a more elemental point to be made. If Pitcher A goes 6 innings one start and gives up 6 runs, and then goes 6 innings the next start and gives up 0 runs in his next start, his ERA is an average 4.5. BUT, if Pitcher B goes 6 innings one start and gives up 3 runs, and then goes 6 innings the next start and gives up 3 runs in his next start, his ERA is an average 4.5.

The question then is: Which pitcher gave his team the best chance to win both games? Obviously, the answer is Pitcher B, as even a league average offensive performance would have resulted in two (bullpen neutral) wins.

This, as always, is another reason that Mike Francesa is a douchebag.

*Pitcher B is Greg Maddux, 1997, and Pitcher A is Oliver Perez, 2009.
** Not really.